Agriculture grew by only 0.85pc in 2018-19

ISLAMABAD: A sector that provides livelihood for almost two out of every five Pakistanis, if it grows by only 0.85 percent, then it should ring alarm bells for the government and it should give more preference to the sector in the upcoming federal budget.This poor performance of the agriculture sector is much lower than the target of 3.8 percent and growth of 3.94 percent in the last fiscal year.This sector still has vast capacity and needs the government’s full attention as it contributes 18.5pc to the country’s GDP, and provides 38.5 percent jobs, revealed the Pakistan’s Economic Survey 2018/19 launched here by Dr Abdul Hafeez Shaikh, Adviser to the Prime Minister on Finance, Revenue and Economic Affairs, and other top officials of the various ministries on Monday.The survey says that this under-performance of agriculture sector was mainly due to insufficient availability of water which led to a drop in cultivated area and a drop in fertilizer offtake.The crops sector experienced a negative growth (-4.43 percent against the target of 3.6 percent) on the back of decline in growth of important crops by (-6.55) percent.Sugarcane production declined by (-19.4) percent to 67.174 million tons, Cotton (-17.5 percent) to 9.861 million bales and Rice (-3.3 percent) to 7.202 million tons while production of maize crop increased by 6.9 percent to 6.309 million tons and wheat growth was marginally higher (by 0.5 percent) to reach 25.195 million tons.Other crops having a share of 11.21 percent in agriculture value addition and 2.08 percent in GDP, showed growth of 1.95 percent mainly due to increase in production of pulses and oilseeds. Cotton ginning declined by 12.74 percent due to decrease in production of cotton crop.Agriculture sector that has forward linkage, if gives this low growth, then it will also harm demand for industrial goods and other services and supply raw material to agro-based industry notably cotton textile industry, which is the largest subsector of manufacturing sector.This low growth in agriculture sector indicates that the poverty situation in the country could not be mitigated with this low growth, as mostly rural population is engaged with the sector.The cotton crop has share of 0.8 percent in GDP and contributes 4.5 percent in agriculture value addition. During 2018/19, cotton production remained at 9.86 million bales registering a decrease of 17.5 percent over the production of 11.946 million bales during 2017-18. On this less production, the survey says that this below expectation performance of the cotton crop was largely due to contraction in the cultivated area on account of less economic incentive to the farmers by 12.1 percent to 2,373 thousand hectares compared to last year’s area of 2,700 thousand hectares. Unfavorable weather conditions, particularly the prolonged hot and dry weather prevailed in the country. In addition, stunting of crop, attack of whitefly, pink bollworm and other pests/insects also hampered crop output.Wheat is the leading food grain of Pakistan occupying the largest area under single crop. Wheat accounts for 8.9 percent of the value added in agriculture and 1.6 percent of GDP in Pakistan. Wheat production showed a marginal increase of 0.5 pc to 25.195 million tons compared to 25.076 million tons in 2017/18.Rice is an important food and cash crop and it accounts for 3.0 percent in the value added in agriculture and 0.6 percent of GDP. During 2018-19, rice production remained at 7.202 million tons against 7.45 million tons last year, showing decline of 3.3pc. The target for rice production was 7.0 percent for the outgoing fiscal.During 2018-19, the production of sugarcane was at record high at 67.174 million tons against 83.33 million tons last year, showing decrease of 19.4pc. Sugarcane crop accounts for 2.9 percent in agriculture’s value addition and 0.5 percent in overall GDP.Maize contributes 2.6 percent to the value added in agriculture and 0.5 percent to GDP. During 2018-19, its production stood at 6.309 million tons compared to the last year production of 5.902 million tons showing an increase of 6.9 pc. The production target for the year under review was 6.0 million tons.Livestock contributed approximately 60.54 percent to the agriculture sector and 11.22pc in GDP maintained the growth of 4 percent against the target of 3.8pc.The fishing sector having share of 2.10 percent in agriculture value addition (and 0.39 percent in GDP), grew by 0.79 percent, while forestry sector having share of 2.10 percent in agriculture (and 0.39 percent in GDP) grew by 6.47 percent due to increase in timber production in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (by 26.7 percent to 36.1 thousand cubic meters).

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