Showing posts with label Money Matters. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Money Matters. Show all posts

Sunday, January 19, 2020

Any contingency plan?

The recent spike in tensions between the United States and Iran should serve as a good opportunity for Pakistan to plan out its strategy to ensure its energy security in case of a possible war in its volatile neighborhood.

Though, hostilities lasted for a week or so, they pushed the international oil prices to four-month high, arousing fears of an all-out war in the region, which is a vital route for global oil supplies.

During the crisis, President Donald Trump announced the US was no longer dependent on Gulf oil to meet its energy needs as it already had made huge shale oil discoveries. However, its European allies as well as rest of the world still largely depend on the Gulf oil and a looming fear of war has turned the region into a tinderbox.

Pakistan needs not only to diversify from costly oil to reduce its burgeoning import bill but it also needs to ensure its energy security so that energy supplies continue uninterrupted in case of a crisis in the Gulf region.

In order to reduce its dependence on expensive oil, Pakistan has struck a deal with Qatar for LNG (liquefied natural gas) supplies and is looking to sign similar deals with other LNG suppliers but ironically these supplies also come through the volatile Gulf region.

In order to diversify its energy mix and limit dependence on oil, Pakistan has been in talks for two important energy projects for decades but both projects have been hamstrung by regional security situation, political, geopolitical, and geostrategic issues.

The first project envisages supply of natural gas from Turkmenistan’s rich gas reserves in Daulatabad through a pipeline to Afghanistan, Pakistan and eventually to India.

This project has been on the table since the 1990s but it could not be materialised because of the conflict in Afghanistan.

The agreement with regard to route of the pipeline, volume of the gas, price of the gas, transit charges etc has almost been reached but inordinate delay in a peace pact among warring sides in Afghanistan is the main obstacle in the implementation of this project.

Now that there are growing signs of a breakthrough in talks between Taliban and the United States as the former has hinted that an agreement with Washington could be reached by the end of January. One hopes this agreement would lead to a comprehensive deal among warring Afghan faction that would eventually lead to establishment of peace in the war-ravaged country. A peace deal in Afghanistan would definitely lead to implementation of these vital energy projects.

During the last PPP (Pakistan People’s Party) government, former president of Pakistan Asif Ali Zardari signed deal for laying down a natural gas pipeline from Iran to Pakistan.

A few years ago, Zardari speaking at a public ceremony had said the project if built could be the safest and shortest source of energy supplies for Pakistan in case of a crisis in the Gulf.

Iran has already laid the pipeline up to its border with Pakistan. However, US-led international sanctions on Iran have virtually crippled this project. Recent flare-up of tensions between Iran and the United States has further dimmed the chance of materialisation of this project.

Frustrated over Pakistan’s cold response to the project, Iran was reported to be mulling to go for international arbitration that could have led to imposition of hefty penalty on Pakistan. However, Tehran dropped the idea of litigation on persuasion of Pakistan.

Apart from the natural gas projects, Pakistan will have to look for more options to diversify its energy sources.

The contribution of nuclear energy to Pakistan’s energy mix is very low. Pakistan ought to increase share of nuclear energy in this regard.

Pakistan also needs to increase share of solar and wind energy to the energy mix. Moreover, it’s also imperative for Pakistan to step up domestic oil exploration.

The present government unnecessarily raised hopes for a huge oil discovery in the Arabian Sea and Prime Minister Imran Khan personally led this campaign.

However, no wells were found despite drilling more than 5500 meters deep into the sea.

Pakistan very meticulously stayed neutral in the recent escalation between Iran and the United States but made constructive efforts to reduce tensions between them.

From the very onset, Pakistan made it clear that it will neither side with any party during the conflict nor will it allow its soil to be used against any country.

Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi visited Tehran and Riyadh as well as Washington and met his counterparts, other leaders, and officials from the three countries to help reduce the tensions.

But apart from these diplomatic efforts Pakistan also needs to prepare itself for any eventuality.

The policy of neutrality is positive but it also needs to make contingency plans particularly with regard to energy security in case the situation worsens in the region.

A country like Pakistan, confronted with grave economic challenges and energy insecurity, cannot let its challenges multiply and thus needs to come up with contingency plans to cope with all kinds of eventualities and a full-scale military conflict in Gulf region is one of them.

Prime Minister has to personally lead the effort to ensure energy security for the country. It is strange that during the Gulf crisis there has not been a single high-level meeting by the government to deliberate on the economic impact of the deteriorating situation and what would happen in case of a breakout of all-out hostilities.

With US-Iran as well as Iran-Saudia rivalry far from over, resurgence of Gulf crisis can’t be ruled out. It is therefore incumbent on the rulers to take full stock of the situation and formulate its strategy well on time.

Prime Minister in a recent interview has very rightly pointed out that a conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran would be disastrous for Pakistan.

“We are trying our best to make sure that ties between these two countries do not deteriorate,” he said adding that’s why Pakistan was making efforts to defuse the situation.

Will all these well-intentioned efforts, Pakistan should prepare itself the worst too.

The writer is a senior journalist based in Islamabad



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What went wrong?

The government has so far failed to bring any improvement in the inflation-wretched lives of the masses despite making deafening claims that economy has been stabilised after the “hard work” of one full year.

However, the people are bearing the brunt of “adjustments” on all aspects under the so-called structural reforms programme handed down by the lender of last the resort.

If we analyse the existing economic policies in-depth, we will find it’s all driven by the government with the sole purpose to deliver on the front of International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme irrespective of how much it is going to cost the national economy.

The latest IMF agreement comprises of ‘traditional prescriptions’ following “one-size-fits-all” approach for which the fund is known. The formula is simple: tighten monetary/fiscal policies to compress demand, which will slow down economy and call it stabilisation.

Now the course of correction adopted by the government under the guidelines of the IMF was highly flawed and was bound to plunge the masses in pain in one of its consequences.

Although, it was a fact that there was no other way out but to get the IMF programme. But the devil is in the details on account of pace of adjustments for achieving the ultimate objective.

The pace of adjustments proved problematic and former finance minister Asad Umar fell prey to it. He was shown the door for being unwilling to put an unbearable burden on the common people of Pakistan. Now Umar is back in the federal cabinet as minister of planning, development, reforms and special initiatives.

It did not end here, because exactly when the IMF team was in town, former Secretary Finance Younas Dagha and former Governor State Bank of Pakistan Tariq Bajwa were also removed unceremoniously because they were resisting mainly over the pace of adjustments wrapped into tough IMF conditions.

The government then appointed Dr Abdul Hafeez Shaikh as advisor to PM on finance and revenues and Dr Reza Baqir as governor State Bank of Pakistan.

Within few weeks, the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) chairman Jehanzeb Khan was also replaced with Shahbar Zaidi just ahead of the budget for 2019-20.

This new economic team accepted the IMF programme with front-loaded conditions as on fiscal front the FBR’s annual tax collection was envisaged at Rs5.5 trillion against a revised tax collection of Rs3832 billion that required a growth of 44 percent. In the entire history of the country, the FBR had never achieved 44 percent growth even when the real GDP growth was on much higher side in the range of 6 to 7.5 percent on per annum basis.

It was a totally wrong assumption as in view of a slowing economy and IMF’s projection for real GDP growth in the range of 2.4 percent for the current fiscal year 2019-20, expecting the FBR to work a miracle on revenue collection was absolutely unjustified and irrational.

On energy front, the power tariff adjustments on quarterly basis and hike in gas tariff on bi-annually basis were envisaged. The government in collaboration with the World Bank and Asian Development Bank prepared energy sector improvement plan, which it claimed arrested the ever-increasing circular debt, but the desired results could not be achieved fully.

The monetary tightening continues and the State Bank of Pakistan is maintaining the policy rate at 13.25 percent to contain inflation.

There were projections of the IMF and other multilateral creditors that the CPI (consumer price index) based inflation would start receding from January 2020 but a recent spike in food and energy prices suggest it was going to cross 13 percent mark for January 2020. And it is likely to hit its highest since this government came into power.

The rising food prices and cost-pushed energy prices are fueling the inflation. And a recent mismanagement on wheat/wheat flour will further worsen the situation because when these commodities become dearer prices of all other items follow the suit. The mismanagement and misgovernance are potential threats to escalate the wheat flour crisis despite the fact that the country achieved a bumper crop of 25.6 million tons of wheat in the last season. With strict management, the wheat flour crisis could be averted easily.

On other hand, now the SBP has an excuse to keep the policy rate on higher side as it helped it attract foreign inflows and achieve Net International Reserves (NIR) on quarterly basis.

With higher policy rate, the country’s large scale manufacturing was witnessing negative growth, increasing unemployment rate.

One recent survey done by international firm IPSOS also found that 83 percent Pakistanis worry about losing their job. They identified four worrying issues including rising inflation, unemployment, increased poverty, and additional tax burden.

At the moment, there is no coherence between fiscal and monetary policies and there is no clear roadmap on how the government will create tens of thousands of jobs in 2020, bringing prosperity in lives of masses.

The main cause of miseries riling the lives of people right now is the flawed reforms strategy agreed with the IMF as its programme binds Islamabad to suffocate growth, push up inflation, keep discount rate on higher side, and discourage provinces for fully utilising development funds.

However, we still have a chance of making adjustments on both fiscal and monetary fronts for spurring growth. That we can do by convincing the IMF team, due soon, to allow us to loosen the fiscal and monetary policies in complete synchronisation with other macroeconomic realities because without a fully-fledged cohesion no relevant objectives can be achieved on sustained basis.

The writer is a staff member



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Wind is at our back

Today, the Renewable Energy is rapidly growing energy resource the world over. Having reached global installed renewable energy capacity at 2,378 gigawatt (GW), including on-shore and off-shore installations, it accounts for one-third of total power generation from all energy resources including fossil fuels and nuclear. The renewable energy resources include hydropower, windpower, solar energy, bioenergy, geothermal and marine energy. Hydropower has the largest share in renewable energy installations, followed by the windpower.

Global windpower installed capacity, in over ninety countries, is around 600 GW. In recent years China has emerged as the largest wind-based power producer with installed generation capacity of 214 GW i.e. about 36 percent share in global windpower installations. Other top countries using wind for power generation include the USA, Germany, India, Spain, the UK, France, Brazil, Canada, and Italy in the same order. Interestingly, windpower capacity per capita is the highest in Denmark though ranking 14th in the list.

Pakistan stands at the 33rd position among wind-based power countries with nominal 1,048 MW (megawatt) installed windpower capacity, utilising less than one percent of its exploitable potential. It is imperative that the government plans seriously to commercially exploit windpower potential optimally and expeditiously to earnestly meet the challenges of climate change, though private sector has to play a key role. Windpower is clean, abundant, inexhaustible, indigenous, and cost-effective energy resource. It is characterised by increasing cost-competitive compared to conventional fossil-fuel power generation, stable installations, developments in technology, and falling prices of wind turbines in the global market.

Initiative for promoting large-scale use of windpower was taken in 1997-98 when the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) took a comprehensive study for commercialisation of windpower potential in the country. The study, completed in April 2001, confirmed that the coastal belt of Sindh possesses enormous potential for economic and sustainable windpower development. Further preliminary studies estimated around 346,000MW windpower generation potential in Pakistan including Sindh, Balochistan, and some parts of the northern areas.

In 2007, the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (US Department of Energy) developed the Wind Atlas of Pakistan covering wind resource maps with wind speed and wind power density potential, projecting commercially exploitable potential of 132GW windpower. The country atlas has been validated in subsequent years, and is now part of the Global Wind Atlas prepared by the Technical University of Denmark and the World Bank Group.

According to detailed studies, however, Sindh has potential to develop about 50,000MW windpower at the Gharo-Keti Bandar wind corridor. These resources are considered technologically exploitable and commercially viable for power generation. In addition, about 13,000MW windpower generation could be developed in the coastal area of Balochistan, where the wind sites are available as well as in the northern areas of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. In fact, wind power is unlimited.

Initially, the government planned adding 700MW windpower to the national grid by 2010. For the purpose, 23,645 acres of land in Sindh (District Thatta) was allocated to 15 prospective investors in 2005, and later an additional 10,330 acres to another seven entrepreneurs to develop the projects on Build-Own-Operate (BOO) basis. Nonetheless, there were inordinate delays and various constraints experienced in constructing the windfarms. The first windmill project therefore could come up in 2013. Today, total installed windpower capacity in Pakistan is 1,281MW.

Twenty windfarms are located in Jhampir wind corridor. These are FFC Energy (49.5MW), Zorlu Enerji Pakistan (50MW), Three Gorges Pakistan First Wind Farm (50MW), Sapphire Wind Power (52.8MW), Metro Power Company (50MW), Yunus Energy (50MW), Master Wind Energy (52.8MW), Tapal Wind Energy now ACT Wind (30MW), Gul Ahmed Wind Power (50MW), Sachal Energy Development (49.5MW), UEP Wind Power (99MW), Jhampir Wind Power (50MW), Hawa Energy (49.7MW), Three Gorges Pakistan Second Wind Farm (49.5MW), Three Gorges Pakistan Third Wind Farm (49.5MW), Artistic Wind Power (49.3MW), Hartford Alternative Energy (49.3MW) and three projects of Tricon Boston Consulting (Sappire Group) each of 50MW capacity (150MW). Thus total installed capacity of these windfarms is 1,031MW.

Five windpower projects of about 250MW cumulative capacity are operational in Gharo wind corridor. These installations are Foundation Wind Energy-I (50MW), Foundation Wind Energy-II (50MW), Tenaga Generasi Ltd (49.5MW), Hydro-China Dawood Power (49.5MW) and Zephyr Power (50MW). Another four projects are at advanced stage of construction at Jhampir and Gujjo (District Thatta). These include Western Energy (50MW), Trans-Atlantic Energy (48.3MW), Shaheen Renewable Energy (51MW) and Burj Wind Energy (13.8MW).

Sachal Energy Development, UEP Wind Power, Three Gorges Pakistan’s Second and Third Wind Farms, and Hydro-China Dawood Power wind projects have been developed under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) programme. Financial close of another 12 wind energy projects of cumulative capacity of about 600MW capacity is expected to be achieved this year. The list includes Norinco international (50MW), ACT 2 Wind (50MW), Din Energy (50MW), Indus Wind Energy (50MW), Lakeside Energy (50MW), NASDA Green Energy (50MW), Iran-Pak Wind (49.5MW), Zulaikha Energy (50MW), Noor Energy (50MW) and Titan Energy (9MW), whereas Western Energy (50MW) and Cacho Wind Energy (50MW) are being developed under the CPEC initiative. The National Electricity Regulatory Authority (NEPRA) has so far issued 47 licenses for windpower generation in Sindh.

On the other hand, there are challenges in harnessing the windpower as it is intermittent and inflexible, and requires back-up generation capacity. Windpower is stable for stand-alone applications, however, it is problematic in grid system for complex technical reasons and it does not offer effective integration of various sources of energy. According to the NEPRA State of Industry Report 2018, “Technically, the grid can take up to 30-40 percent of wind energy”. Furthermore, there are transmission limitations at the NTDC grid system at present for evacuation of power from new power plants.

The non-availability of wind turbines and allied equipment locally can seriously hamper the efforts to develop the wind energy systems optimally. All the components of a wind turbine such as blades, controller, gearbox, shafts, rotors, towers etc can be manufactured locally.

However, state-of-the-art technology has to be acquired from abroad as the research activities related to the atmospheric fluid dynamics, aerodynamics, and structural dynamics are involved in the selection of turbine size and configuration.

In the early years of the 2000s a few turbine manufacturers, including Kenetech Wind Power Inc, USA, and Vestas Wind Systems, Denmark, had shown interest in progressive manufacturing of wind turbines in Pakistan but the vested interests discouraged these efforts. Alas, we continue to depend on imports of wind turbines and its accessories.

The writer is retired chairman of State Engineering Corporation



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Public insult, private apology

Impudence has no limitations. Insults are forgiven but rarely forgotten. Injuries heal, those caused to the physical self. The wounds and scars of insult remain unhealed. Insulting attitude is an intimation of strength of a weak manager. Only those who are full of inadequacies and insecurities, will resort to the use of insulting language at work place or otherwise, too. Getting hit by a falling tile does not hurt perennially, but a stone thrown at us, hurts the most.

You can either avenge an insult or endure it. Wisdom demands that insults should be set aside with tolerance, moderation and inexhaustible patience. But, I would rush to state it is not to be taken to mean that you allow a “bully manager” to run amok on the shop floor. Most bullies back off, due to inherent cowardice in them, at the first challenge you throw to their disapproving behavior. Failing to do so, will cause the insults to become scars that would grow as we grow. There is an Italian Proverb that goes like: “Who offends writes on sand, who is offended on marble”.

Only those indulge in hurling insults that either are not in command of their own selves or believe that it is exhibitionism of being wiser. Insult is a consequence of raging anger. As fire is kindled by bellows, so is anger by words. That’s when reason rides out of a man, who is under the influence of at least a degree of temporary insanity. Never has insult been good as a counsel.

“Chronic remorse, as all the moralists are agreed, is a most undesirable sentiment. If you have behaved badly, repent, make what amends you can and address yourself to the task of behaving better next time. On no account brood over your wrongdoing. Rolling in the muck is not the best way of getting clean” (Aldous Huxley). Many a time the remorse is not the consequence of regret over what one may have done, it is invariably the fear of what the backlash would be upon us, either by the affectee or Divine Retribution.

Insulting others does not confer the manager with any additional powers, and the most difficult part is to explain that to him. Some managers do so under the belief that to punish and thence regret is a sound act of generosity. In an essay, ‘Hearts of Gold”, Ogden Nash wrote back in 1945, “There are people who are very resourceful, at being resourceful, and who apparently feel that the best way to make friends is to do something terrible and then make amends”. Apologies can never alter the hurt insults cause. To live afresh and be free of guilt, the sense of regret must prevail. Remorse is a necessity. Many a times, remorse is a malady far more dreadful than the initial mistake of having indulged in bloodletting of a fellow human. In rage, regret is the deep slumber; it awakens only when there is either loss of office or adversity. Albeit, regret or apology is no weakness; it is a virtue.

An egotistical and a narcissist manager, you will find, are the most difficult individuals to handle and deal with. Both have, for although different reasons, absolutely no control over their negative emotions, leading to a state of perpetual anger. The objective is to induce fear into the organisational environment. The reason to lose shirt, at the drop of the hat, is invariably, an effort to mask personal inadequacies. Many a manager would find reasons to throw their weight around, by barking at colleagues; at which point in time, they appear to represent, the animal kingdom. They do so vociferously in the hope that their roaring reverberates across all floors and that the tremor of their tongue lashing in public of one or few of their reports reaches to the farthest corners of their “dominion of influence”.

When supervisors of this type regain some elements of humaneness, within them, they are likely to be filed with remorse. Bear in mind that not all of them regain empathy or human sensitivities and remain most of their lives expunged of feelings and emotions and hence are unlikely to be regretful. Also be alert to managers who insult and injure through euphemism, non-direct conversations, narration of anecdotes, and use of expletives, as part and parcel of conversation, where the audience cannot make out for whom the bell tolls! Such are wily in nature and deceitful by behavior. But those who do regret, even they now embark on enacting more damaging scenes having indulged in public display of anger, retort or verbal abuse, they seek to redress the situation; however, cowardice being their second nature and ally, they do not have the gall to publicly apologise for their misdemeanors. Instead the mauled victim, after some hours of the incident , during which time, he/she receives either words of genuine sympathy from coworkers or takes more by the insincere empathy that rubs salt deeply into the invisible gashes and deep wounds, is finally called by ‘The manager royale’ in his/her imperial cabin.

Here now begins, either a genuine regret or dramatic/theatrics performance of remorse for the disgraceful behavior exhibited on the shop floor. This personal, genuine or otherwise, apology in private; done far away from the sight of those who witnessed in full glare the earlier ‘public insult’, doesn’t in any manner go towards healing the wounds of the individual.

On the gallows, even sinners become preachers. As managers and supervisors of human resource, it is imperative to recognize that in dealing with such an important segment of the organisation, great care is exercised, in the development of a culture of mutual respect. Anything less, in a corporate environment is an assurance that the organisation over period of time will implode. The emphasis on sharpening interpersonal skills should remain a priority of the managers.

Organiaation that ensure development of culture, where the staff is encouraged, by word and practice, to write the bad things done to them on sand, and write all the good things that happened to them on a tablet of marble. In every conversation, it is best to exercise extreme discretion of whether to keep quiet or say anything. The choice must be undertaken, between good behavior and unbecoming stance. Never indulge in MBR (management by ridicule).

The writer is a freelance contributor



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Sunday, January 12, 2020

A shale gas frack-up

The long-awaited exploration and exploitation of the non-conventional shale gas resources in Pakistan may not remain a distant dream any more, it seems.

The Oil & Gas Development Co Ltd (OGDCL) has commenced drilling on December 14 for the first shale gas well in the Kunnar-Pasakhi field, Hyderabad District (Sindh). The objective of the Shale Pilot Project is to obtain optimum information and data on prospects of shale gas resources in the area, and subsequently to analyse and ascertain its development on commercial basis, though there is no timeline set by the OGDCL. These investigations are expected to eventually help in formulating the guidelines for the proposed shale gas policy said to be incorporated in the Petroleum Policy 2020, which is already on the cards.

It was in November 2015 when Ministry of Energy, Petroleum Division (then Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Resources) had assigned the OGDCL and Pakistan Petroleum Limited (PPL) to jointly launch a pilot project on shale gas resources. The project was to be completed within three months. It was to undertake assessment of potential shale gas reserves through simultaneous drilling of wells in selected areas of Sindh, Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, to ascertain drilling cost and thus economic viability, and to determine corresponding technology needs. However, the government proposals to assess the proven, inferred and probable reserves of shale gas reserves remained in cold storage for a long time.

The nonconventional or unconventional gas resources are natural reservoirs that are difficult to develop, involve state-of-the-art technology and equipment, require comparatively larger investments, and are costly to produce gas commercially. Tight gas sand reservoirs are primary source for unconventional gas; others include shale gas, coal-bed methane and deep gas in geopressurised zones. Sadly, the information about the nonconventional gas resources in the country is still uncertain and unreliable. Initial studies conducted by the international oil and gas Exploration and Production (E&P) companies operating in Pakistan had assessed 33 trillion cubic feet (TCF) tight gas in selected areas.

However, rough estimates of unconventional gas resources are of the size of about 10,000 TCF countrywide, according to a study conducted by the US Agency for International Development (USAID). In the wake of increasing gas demands and declining conventional gas reservoirs, the government had decided to develop these resources on fast track, having announced the ‘Tight Gas Exploration and Development Policy’ in May 2011. This established the policies, procedures, pricing regime and fiscal and financial concessions for exploiting unconventional gas reserves. Nonetheless, the Policy did not bring any conclusive and successful results for the investment in this area.

Talking of the shale gas resources, the US Energy Information Administration (USEIA) has updated in 2013 its earlier estimates of shale gas reserves, from 51 TCF to 586 TCF, including technically recoverable 205 TCF and economically feasible 95 TCF reserves, mostly located in the Lower Indus Basin (in Ranikot and Sember in Sindh). The study however is not considered comprehensive as it was based on data of 1,611 wells, shale formation of 1,312 wells, and analysis of shale cores and cuttings of 124 wells drilled in the selected area. This had necessitated the launching of the Shale Pilot Project by the government in 2015 at the public-sector level.

Shale gas is mostly found trapped underground in layers of sedimentary shale rocks, generally distributed over a large area. It has low permeability compared to conventional reserves and therefore does not flow easily. Shale gas is extracted directly from shale formation reservoir rocks as the reservoirs are mechanically stimulated to create additional permeability, thereby releasing the gas for collection in the well. This technology, though complex has proven successful for many decades, is known as Hydraulic Fracturing (or Fracking) of the reservoir. Deep holes are drilled into the shale rock, followed by horizontal drilling to access more of the gas reserves (that are typically distributed horizontally). Commonly, the shale gas reservoir depths are in the range of 1,500 meters to 3,000 meters below the surface.

Fracking fluids are used in various combinations of sand, water and chemicals depending on geological conditions of the area. The fluids, combinations of which, in particular the use of chemicals, are of proprietary nature to the international exploration and production companies. The fluids are pumped at high pressure into the drilled holes to open up fractures in the rock enabling the trapped gas to flow through the fractures into collection wells. The experts estimate that about 80 tons to 330 tons of a variety of chemicals are used in the four million gallons of fluid for each frack. There are hundreds of toxic chemicals used, including arsenic, benzene, formaldehyde, hydrochloric acid, acetic acid, boric acid, lead and mercury, to name a few.

Annual natural gas production remains static in the face of depleting conventional gas resources, whereas the demand has been increasing at the rate of over eight percent per annum. The gas supply-demand imbalance is expected to grow every year, and the huge shale gas reserves therefore offer a promising potential for supporting future energy needs, though the OGDCL has indicated only 10 percent possibility of success in finding it. Commercial exploitation of shale gas however poses a number of constraints and risks -economic, technical, environmental, and social.

Massive investments are required. Recovery rates are much lower than for conventional gas, involving longer recovery cycles. Thus the production cost and selling price of shale gas is much higher compared to conventional gas. Will the nation be able to afford such high price of gas for domestic and industrial purposes? Then, there are long-lasting negative impacts of technology employed. The process requires relatively large quantities of water. Generally, two to eight million gallons of water is used to frack a well that may be fracked a number of times, resulting in significantly shrinking water supplies in the area. Can we take the risk of employing fracking process in the Sindh province, already a drought-prone area? There will be logistic issues involved in transportation of such large quantities of water to the site.

Use of large quantities of water will generate large quantities of wastewater, which will pose disposal problems, though it can be reused after treatment but for further fracking purpose only. Hazardous waste includes toxic contaminants as large quantities of dangerous chemicals are used in fracking fluid. Also, water contamination by methane is common as 40 percent of water flows back to the surface. Dust from the sand used in the fluid results in air pollution, whereas leakage of methane to atmosphere is also possible. There is risk of seismic activity, of small earthquakes though, due to high pressure used to extract gas from rock.

Controversial long-lasting negative effects of fracking on air, water and soil of the areas, and thus on public health and environment, have raised serious concerns in the developed nations, and drilling for shale gas at exploratory phase in many countries has been discontinued in recent years.

The writer is retired chairman of State Engineering Corporation



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Careering errors

“Twenty years from now you will be disappointed by the things you did not do, so throw off the bowlines, sail away from a safe harbor, and catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover” (Mark Twain).

Not for reasons of only being a professional but also for being grateful to Divinity, for giving us life, we must plan, on how we will put to use, the days, months, years of life, we are blessed with. Planning is not for a single day. To undertake tasks of substance, the thought cannot be restricted to the daily things-to-do; unless each single day is part of the plan, encapsulating the chores of the day, week, month, and years that go to impact “our life”.

As a first step, an individual has to “decide”, what is the quest? Once the ultimate goal is in mind, then one has to undertake an exercise to determine, how things are to be prioritised; which task should precede and which can be placed on the back burner. Here, it is also important to judge and evaluate, if the quest, has any conflict between personal objectives and professional objectives. The two can be different, but the gulf, if any between them, must not render the objectives to be opposite to each other. Glaring conflict must be quickly reconciled. Setting goals that are clear, precise and specific always helps. Having said that the word ‘goal’, I am amazed at the way and manner, it is abused in the management of resources, particularly human resources, by management gurus and practitioners. A goal is an objective to achieve, nothing more, nothing less. As a student of management, I am unable and unwilling too, to distinguish between goals and “smart goals” – I believe this overplay in semantics does not, in any manner, alter or change the basic elements of setting goals and objectives. An affix of “street” to any human characteristic or trait is at least not my cup of tea. What in the world is “street smart”? Does it mean one has to adopt “street” behavior, language, nuances, attitude or what? These concepts to me are management humbugs – just set your goals, as you see for yourself, depending on your personality and skill set, both the existing and of the ones to be acquired in future. In the determination of these goals, let no prefix of any adjective take you away from gentlemanly behavior. You can achieve goals at a cost; never attempt to achieve at “any cost” that may force you to infringe upon your moral, ethical, social, or religious standards. If there is a dichotomy between personal goals and professional, then revisit them with the lens of your own values and traditions. Those who stick with universally accepted value, usually move faster on the organisation chart, then those who try and discover the art of bending and playing with fundamental of values, by either rephrasing them or by adding unnecessary adjectives as a suffix or a prefix.

To plan a career, without setting time lines for putting major milestones, on the journey towards accomplishment of targets, is akin to following an illusion; a mirage and a chase towards nowhere. Each planned career move must be flagged with a deadline to achieve results. This allows for praising oneself, once the target is achieved, which in turn converts into a major motivational factor, for furthering higher objectives. As is said, nothing breeds better than success. Each success as small or as high is an impetus to continue on the pathway of life for in life, generally, there is no such thing as “ultimate success”. From the ascending of each pinnacle of summit, there is always to see, emergence of, a new horizon that needs to be discovered. Self-fulfillment has the best characteristic to motivate, and it is generated internally; no external stimuli are required, to move on towards newer destinations. For your career development, do not rely upon or depend on external factors. These external factors are never in your full command and control.

Work or tasks must be used and looked upon as tools for self development. The classical approach, that the job of the manager is to “get work done” by others, is close to obsolescence; present day standards of performance, require of managers to “get people done” (i.e., trained professionally) through work. Focused endeavors must be made towards seeking and development of new skill sets. The supervisor must see in you, a better professional, than your peer group. It is not to suggest that effort must be made to make your colleagues look bad or unprofessional; taking such route is not only negative, but also fatal to gains derived, if any. These are neither sustainable nor long-lasting. Develop your career based on “your strengths” and not on “weakness of co-workers”.

In pursuit of career objectives, no sight must be lost, on your internal values and belief system. If the organisation you work for has different set of values that are not in conformity with the fundamentals of universally accepted principles, then do not think just move it. It is for sure that if values conflict, the results are bound to be disastrous, for both, yourself and the organisation. Stand firmly against unjust principles and never bend under the self- deceiving guise of “compromise for status quo”. Firstly, do not use proximity to the boss for advancing your career. And secondly, if you have to, then do so with grace and dignity -- do not become a doormat or on the other extreme do not exercise undue influence upon other colleagues through the barrel of power borrowed by closeness to the boss. It is futile. It hurts ultimately. Success through proximate cause makes more enemies than admirers.

The recognition of hard work must give you “visibility” in the organisation. Best be known for hard work and diligence; and not be popular as an apron hanger to the bosses’ coats or a shoeshiner. Always seek to associate with those who have clarity of purpose in their lives. Those who are just. Those who are upright. Those who would not waver from the path of honesty, regardless of enticements or even temptations. Building character traits that distinguish you from the masses go a long way in helping shaping one’s career.

Be distinct for reasons of being tolerant to diverse opinions; adopt to demands of changing ways of conducting business; be adept at acquisition of new and fresh knowledge. Seek to get nomination to training and development programs, both within and outside the organisation. While doing so, prepare to move with focus horisontally on the organisational chart, just as much as you would do, to move vertically. The need for diversification and variety of experience is an imperative, if your aim is to get the ‘numero uno’ position in the organisation hierarchy. Career management also requires a fair degree of understanding the need to anchor in an organisation. Moving stone gathers no moss. But, simultaneously also, timing for being in a given company, a division, a department or a section must be fixed. If the entity fails in its responsibility of ensuring you rotation, then take the bull by the horns and guide your way through, by way of interacting with the CEO (chief executive officer) and HR (human resource) Head.

While destiny does play its part, it is also true to say that only upon those, who are hardworking, talented and focused, does the lady luck smile upon. Success, by whatever individual meaning and definition, and incompetence, are never good friends.

Besides, acquisition of the knowledge of nuts and bolts of each section of the organisation, effort must be made to harness management skills that must include appreciation of interpersonal skills, clarity of purpose, clear communication, the value of interdependence and the overall development of a stable and mature personality. Jokers or court jesters have limited shelf life; so do pretenders and the deceitful. Do not get beguiled by their limited success. I have seen many youngsters straying away from an otherwise successful career path by following and adopting the managerial skills (??) of those who are conceited, indulge in backbiting and are never shy to progress on the shoulders of skeletons.

Always do what you are good at. It helps the individual as well as the entity. Don’t lose sight as a leader of people where there is recognition that no crabs can be trained to walk straight. Do not invest to do so for failure is the most certain answer to such an effort.

Career decisions must not be procrastinated. If a decision has to be taken, so be it. Seek to be resolute in your aims and ambitions.

The writer is a free lance contributor



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The burn of hot money

In the blind pursuit of hot money, Pakistan’s economic managers are foolhardily focused on generate dollar inflows by from abroad by selling short-term Treasury Bills (T-bills) and Pakistan Investment Bonds (PIBs) at higher rates.

Exactly, the incumbent regime is following “Egyptian model” for building up foreign currency reserves despite knowing that Cairo was facing catch-22 situation at the moment for doing the same under the guidelines of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme. When Egypt had entered the programme by end of 2016, its foreign currency reserves were in the range of $15 billion and under a three-year program of $12 billion they rose to $45 billion. The foreign currency reserves of northeastern African nation increased $30 billion out of which $20 billion were raised through hot money.

Now Egypt is on the horns of a dilemma because its policy makers are facing a difficult situation to keep this hot money worth $20 billion in the system. Recently, Egypt’s central bank decreased policy rate by 100 basis points that resulted in the exclusion of $1 billion. If their policy rate further reduces then it is feared the accumulated hot money will find any other destination, where the lenders could maximise their profits through short-term investments. Egypt was pursuing this flawed policy when Dr Reza Baqir was working there as IMF’s resident chief before deciding to quit that position to join as Governor State Bank of Pakistan (SBP).

Pakistan is now following the same policy and in the first few months the country has attracted over $1.5 billion as investment in short-term its debt market.

Pakistan’s debt market has, so far, fetched around $1.5 billion and $10 million from abroad through the short-term T-bills and PIBs respectively at markup rates that are on the higher side.

This foreign funding landed in short-term T-bills at a time when the policy rates are persisting at 13.25 percent for a while. It is feared that when policy rates will be slashed down, this money will fly out of Pakistan in search of more favourable destination in any other part of the world. So we will be witnessing quite a peculiar situation when this hot money dries out in case policy rates go down.

This will incentivise the central bank to keep the policy rates on higher side. It can lead to the creation of a ‘conflict of interest’ for the policymakers, who might prefer to keep the monetary stance tighter in order to keep foreign investments within the system.

The independent economists’ hue and cry that this blind pursuit for luring hot money at higher rates will harm domestic investment and economic activities is only falling on the deaf ears of the policy-smiths.

Pakistan’s former economic advisor and renowned economist Dr Ashfaque Hassan Khan said, “There is no rationale behind attracting this kind of hot money”. “There can be a substitute to this highly unpredictable short-term money. The government can launch international bonds such as Eurobond and sukuk bond for a period of five to ten years with single-digit markup rate.” When apprised that federal cabinet deferred Ministry of Finance-tabled summaries for launching international bonds, mainly because certain ministers opposed the proposal following mortgaging motorways, highways, and airport terminals, Khan said it could only be termed as ‘economic illiteracy’ and nothing else. The economist also said the sukuk was an asset-backed bond and many Islamic countries used this instrument to generate dollar inflows.

There is another element that should also be kept in mind. The government had projected generating $3 billion through international bonds, so if this plan was dropped then the government would have to rely on domestic borrowing for raising around Rs500 billion for financing its budget deficit that would have grown even larger keeping existing higher interest rates in view.

Out of $1.5 billion inflows into short-term debt market, the bulk of foreign money into T-bills has come from the UK and the USA amounting $746 million and $663 million, respectively.

Dr Hafeez A Pasha, another top economist of the country, said there was no justification for drawing in hot money at the expense of discouraging private sector investment. “The higher policy rate was also playing havoc with budgetary estimates and increasing debt servicing requirements,” Pasha added.

Inflationary expectations have been cited as a major cause for keeping the policy rate high. However, the inflation rate clocked in at 12.63 percent but the core inflation has started receding, coming down from 8 percent to 7.5 percent for December 2019.

When core inflation (non food and non energy) stands at 7.5 percent, there is no justification for freezing the overall policy rate at 13.25 percent other than a means for attracting hot money from abroad.

The SBP officials do not agree to certain assumptions and argued that the foreign portfolio was a friction to overall investment so the central bank could not be held responsible for protecting friction part of over $1 billion as the sole reason for maintaining a hawkish monetary regime. Now the question arises that: are there any guarantees this friction will remain lower over the next two and half year period? It is feared that it might cross $10 billion to $15 billion -to meet Net International Reserves (NIR) target- under the IMF programme.

On other hand, the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) also promulgated Tax Laws (second amendment) Ordinance, 2019. The FBR states that the existing foreign exchange framework of the country allows non-residents to invest in debt securities and government securities through Special Convertible Rupee Accounts (SCRAs) maintained with banks in Pakistan.

There is no restriction on repatriation of funds from SCRAs, which incentivises investment in the debt market by non-resident investors. Several amendments for encouraging investment in the domestic debt market and simplifying the tax regime for non-resident companies have been introduced.

This hot money poses risks for Pakistan’s economy and even Humayun Akhtar Khan, chairman Institute of Policy Reforms, who is also a member of the ruling party, has recently cautioned the policymakers against attracting hot money, thus this policy needs to be reversed.

The writer is a staff member



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Sunday, January 5, 2020

Mini-budget on cards

Pakistan’s exports have declined to the tune of $6 billion so far, and with this new realities are emerging on the economic front of Pakistan. The country will likely readjust policies over short to medium-term. With the changing security environment in the aftermath of the killing of Iranian general in Baghdad, international oil prices might escalate, posing another threat to the import-dependent countries like Pakistan. Economic volatility will thus increase further.

However, in which direction the incumbent government’s policy makers take Pakistan, is yet to be seen. The economic team has to decide about the course of adjustment through loosening of the fiscal policy or monetary policy, or a combination of both to kick-start the sluggish economy. It possesses a month and a half to make its choice before the International Monetary Fund (IMF) team arrives in the capital in February 2020 to discuss the new economic realities and to finalise the course of correction.

Many economists who know the ins and outs of the country’s economy concede that readjustment in policies was around the corner. They suggest adopting well thought out policies. The government seems ready for adjustment in fiscal policies so a mini-budget is on the cards by the end of February 2020 following IMF consultations.

With the IMF’s consent, Pakistan revised down the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) collection target to Rs5.238 trillion from Rs5.5 trillion. It also agreed under the new structural benchmark condition to take “additional measures” before presenting the budget review in parliament by end-February 2020.

This clearly indicates that a mini-budget is on the cards if the need arises to make adjustments on the fiscal front. On the other side, the non-tax revenue target has also been jacked up by 0.8 percent of GDP to compensate the shortfall on the tax collection front, and to keep the budget deficit, especially primary deficit, within the desired limits.

“On the basis of the review’s findings, we will implement ‘additional measures’ as needed to ensure that FY 2020 annual targets are observed,” the Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies (MEFP) duly signed by Adviser to the PM on Finance Dr Abdul Hafeez Shaikh and SBP Governor Dr Reza Baqir stated under the IMF’s $6 billion Extended Fund Facility (EFF).

Pakistani authorities made a commitment to present the budget review to Parliament by end-February 2020 to guide implementation of the FY 2020 budget, containing budget and actual comparisons of revenue, expenditure, and financing through the first half of FY20, as well as an assessment of the budget estimates for the entire budget year.

“On the basis of the review’s findings, we will implement ‘additional measures’ as needed to ensure that FY 2020 annual targets are observed,” the MEFP stated which was released through IMF’s review report.

Although, the IMF has lowered down projection of its inflationary pressures from average 13 percent to 11.8 percent for the current fiscal year, it would be still kept in double digit. So the possibility of any drastic change in monetary stance seems minimal because the SBP through monetary policy was taking into account as overall headline inflation instead of core inflation. The food and energy push inflation will continue keeping pressures on overall inflationary pressures in the current fiscal year.

The IMF’s review report and MEFP document signed by Pakistani authorities stated that there would be quarterly notification of adjustment of power tariff. “Until the process of adjusting quarterly tariffs becomes fully automatic, we will continue to timely notify tariffs on a quarterly basis,” it said.

The government is committed with the multilateral creditors to amend NEPRA Act after which the determined tariff by the regulator would stand notified automatically, but until this mechanism would be in place, the authorities were committed to notify quarterly adjustment of tariff.

“In this regard, on November 29, we announced the increase in tariffs for capacity payments by around 2 percent, effective for Q1 FY 2020 (prior action) and we will adjust Q FY 2020 tariffs for capacity payments by end-January 2020 (new SB),” the IMF document states.

Recovery of net hydel profits stock of arrears: The tariff update of January 2020 will incorporate the recovery from consumers of half the outstanding stock of remaining net hydel profits arrears, equivalent to Rs73 billion.

Eliminating delays in tariff adjustments and reintroducing the government’s power to introduce tariff surcharges: To this end, we are preparing amendments to the NEPRA Act focusing on giving the regulator the power to determine and notify quarterly tariffs; ensuring timely submissions of quarterly and annual petitions by the DISCOs; eliminating the gap between the regular annual tariff determination and notification by the government; and reinstating the power of the government to levy surcharges over and above the system’s revenue requirements under the Nepra Act.

Ensuring timely disbursement of power sector-related subsidies: We will aim to streamline and facilitate the disbursement of sector-related subsidies and, to this end, by end-November 2019 the Ministry of Energy will streamline the required auditing procedures to ensure the timely disbursement of subsidies.

Performance-based management of DISCOs: To improve efficiencies and collections the government will sign performance-based contracts with all DISCOs by end-January 2020.

The contracts will contain KPIs for improvements in collection, reductions in losses, and meeting the regulatory timelines for petitions submissions, with mechanisms to reward good performance and/or compensate for shortfalls. DISCOs will submit quarterly performance reports to NEPRA and will publish on NEPRA’s website.

“We will introduce new surcharges as needed to ensure that the circular debt reduction targets under the plan are met,” the document read.

On gas sector, the IMF report states that reforms in the gas sector were advancing as planned. Key achievements included timely update of tariffs.

The tariff adjustment on July 1 eliminated the flow of gas sector arrears. Going forward, Pakistan would adjust tariffs on OGRA’s midyear decision on tariffs.

The writer is a staff member



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Reward management

Every living being responds with performance only if there is some sort of reward on offer. Leave alone humans, it is the loaf of meat that makes the lion perform to the commands of its master or small fish or bits of squid that motivate dolphins to do their tricks when their trainer gives them cues. In fact, it is said, that when you sit and talk in loving tones to flowering plants, they grow faster and produce flowers that are better in terms of colours and their vibrancy. As children, all of us responded to our parent’s demands to show off our skills in singing nursery rhymes to their friends, only upon the assurance of a reward in the shape of either cookies or chocolates. This continues to be the most innocent bribe, we offer to our offspring, for their performance. Over time, cookies and chocolates get replaced with things of higher value, like smartphones, lap-tops, etc. The established principle is that performance demands reward or recognition.

I recall with relish, in fourth grade, I got first prize in essay writing. The rector gave me a reward/gift of ‘The Bible’; great motivation was its consequence. I read the Bible, -St Mathews, St Luke, St John, etc. This recognition gave an impetus for me to read and write. “Far and away the best prize life offers is the chance to work hard at work worth doing” (Theodore Roosevelt).

To ensure performance of teams, what is of critical value, is the need for shared vision. The clarity of business vision is absolute. And the vision must be adequately disseminated across all levels of the organisation. Some managers consider budget documents to be of classified nature and hence do not share them, with those who are expected to accomplish the associated numbers. It is important the targeted business numbers must be known across the board. On an individual basis, each constituent must be made aware of their respective key results areas (KRAs). Every single new entrant to the organisation must be clearly advised of her/his KRAs and how they will be assessed for performance. This attitude and way forward for achievement of basic number is an important area for supervisors to monitor closely on a regular basis.

In the assignment of tasks, all efforts must be made by the supervisor to balance and distribute the workload, with matching responsibility. This ensures clarity. There would be no room for confusion between whose work it is to perform and who shoulders the responsibility associated with that work.

Following a spectacular deliverance of performance by any worker, the job of the manager, in the management of the performer’s expectation of reward with reality, acquires great significance. Many a manager fails in the management of excellent human resources. The good worker requires a better supervision and an excellent worker the best. He/she that burns most shines most. Glowing coals sparkle off. Every single worker is consciously and unconsciously hungry for recognition and reward. Failure to give them an enhanced and prominent position will most likely yield to lower standards of performance.

Feedback, to any effort is always critical. It must be taken and given in the most sincere form and format. Those managers, who know how to use the feedback mechanism for enhancing motivational levels of the workforce, usually have to themselves the most productive team in the organisation. Whilst, giving feedback, an enlightened manager conveys appreciation of the strengths, without compromising on conveyance of what are seen and perceived as gaps, or any other inadequacies, for enabling corrective action. Feedback should always be less on person, more on work and its quality; subjectivity must necessarily be avoided, unless there is need to correct some major personality related deficiency. Even then, the manager has to put all empathy-inspired skills to navigate through a discussion, without hitting any iceberg of loaded and withheld emotions.

Well-trained managers, while doing any feedback meetings know how to drive the meeting in a manner, where the exercise is seen as ignition to enhanced motivation and distinguishes the feedback that she/he gives, more for the purposes of self-improvement.

Annual appraisal, in my view, is a misfit management concept. It is like going into the theatre of war, after the war has ended, to merely count the dead or to bayonet the wounded to death. A full year is allowed to pass, without the poor employee getting to know, what his supervisor, perceives in him to be reason that relates to either skills, inadequacy or gaps, impairing her/his performance. Staff must be appraised, at least once a quarter, preferably face-to-face with the supervisor. Periodic feedback, at the predetermined intervals is always effective and desirable.

Once performance of the set budget or target is achieved, what should be the reward? What is the optimum compatibility (between performance and rewards)? A single type of reward is equivalent to demeaning the importance of work between two colleagues. It just cannot be the same for all ranging from monetary to non-monetary. Recognition and rewards must be pertinent and commensurate with the performance and its significance to the organisation.

The obvious question, hence is what areas are of importance to the organisation? The answer is simple, all areas. An organisation excels only when all of its constituents feel that their work is recognised as being important to the success of the organisation. To enable performance, the manager has to create in the mind of every individual how important is his/her assignment. I never missed an opportunity to tell the tea-boys of how significantly they impact upon the organisation’s business and culture. Serving coffee in a cup with the spoon placed against its handle, which must be on the right side, is indicative of good etiquette training; serving the same that is half in the cup and half spilled in the saucer sends a very different message. Giving quality importance to work enhances productivity and performance. True recognition roots and spreads. Praise, with ill intent, is done only by the evil people/managers and is certainly dispraise.

Alongside, significance of the task, reward people with autonomy. Nothing is more motivational than to give independence to think and create, within of course, the defined confines of the entity’s corporate objectives. Also, contributing to the development of new skills or fine-tuning existing skills is a good way to reward. From nomination to training programme, both within and outside, inclusive of overseas development programmes to granting of stock options, as pension benefits, etc are all tools of reward and recognition.

Praise is never unpleasant, done in isolation or in public. Those who do not value praise will rarely do anything worthy of praise. Praise makes good people better and bad people worse. Praise must come from others and environment, while self-praise stinks.

For lack of performance, and if it is consistent, nobody from the workforce will protest, “firing” of such resources. What is done in passion cannot even be thought in cold blood. Within each organisation, there is this class of self-motivated individuals, who perform beyond reasons of seeking recognition or even reward. They find for themselves satisfaction and self-fulfillment, out of the significance, they attach to their work, in the overall scheme of the mission of the organization. A nurse in a hospital, who responds with, “I save lives” or the person who mops the floor at NASA, says, “I sent the man on the moon” do not need any reward or recognition – they find meaningful .purpose to the work, they perform and do.

Managers just need to sincerely appreciate good quality of output and then witness for themselves the power of it. In any case, rewards aren’t goals, they are mere milestones. “The reward of a thing well done is to have done it” (Ralph Waldo Emerson). The roots of any corporate culture are embedded in the soil of appreciation of good toil and efforts. The greatest reward is to do more. And rewards that demands surrender of autonomy of thought and action are never to be had or pursued. No staff likes to be burdened with rewards that are perceived as gaining of scraps out of generosity.

The writer is a freelance contributor



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Brewing Gulf conflict

The killing of Iranian’s Quds Force commander Qasem Suleimani in a US drone attack at the Baghdad airport has raised the specter of a new and wider conflict in the Gulf and the Middle East.

Any conflict in Pakistan’s neighborhood would have grave security, political and economic risks for Pakistan which has still been reeling from the disastrous consequences of four decades of war in the bordering Afghanistan. The country also faces prospect of another conflict with its main rival India.

Hours after the news of Suleimani’s killing flashed on the world media, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo phoned army chief General Qamar Bajwa and discussed “US defensive action to kill Qasem Soleimani”.

“The #Iran regime’s actions in the region are destabilising and our resolve in protecting American interests, personnel, facilities, and partners will not waver,” the US official said in a tweet.

The army spokesman Major-General Asif Ghafoor confirmed the telephonic conversation in which the two discussed “regional situation including possible implications of recent escalation in the Middle East”.

According to ISPR statement, General Bajwa emphasised the need for maximum restraint and constructive engagement by all concerned to de-escalate the situation in the broader interest of peace and stability. (The) COAS also reiterated need for maintaining focus on success of the Afghan peace process.

Suleimani’s killing marked not just a major escalation in tensions between the United States and Iran but also has the potential to spark a dangerous conflict in a region which straddles on one of the major oil route for the world, and Pakistan could not stay unaffected from the consequences of such a conflict in its immediate neighbourhood.

Oil prices rose sharply in the international market following the killing with analysts warning that any conflict could affect global oil production.

The price of Brent crude spiked over three percent and at one point hit $69.50 a barrel, the highest since September.

It also pushed oil stocks on the London Stock Exchange higher, with BP up 2.7 percent and Royal Dutch Shell nearly 1.9 percent higher.

After its main regional rival Saudi Arabia, Iran is the second biggest oil producer in the world though its oil income has dropped sharply after US imposed crippling sanctions to curb Iranian oil exports after Tehran refused to open dialogue to re-negotiate the nuclear deal sealed by Trump’s predecessor Barak Obama along with major world powers.

Trump unilaterally pulled out of the deal to force Iran to discuss a new deal that should also include Tehran’s growing role in the regional issues.

Previously, Iran has threatened to block strategic Strait of Hormuz for oil trade in case of any conflict with the United States. About one-fifth of the world oil supplies pass through the strait which lies between Iran and Oman. It links the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman to the south and the Arabian Sea beyond.

So any armed conflict involving Strait of Hormuz could have serious and direct consequences for Pakistan. Apart from oil, the Strait of Hormuz is also a major route for other energy supplies.

Qatar, the world’s biggest liquefied natural gas (LNG) exporter also sends almost all of its LNG through this route. Qatar is presently the only LNG supplier to Pakistan and all these supplies take place through this route.

Energy experts believe that Pakistan being a totally oil importing country could have a highly inflated oil import bill in case the conflict persists in the Gulf region.

“The dollar rate has been stabilised after a great effort and if there is a conflict in the region then the oil prices would go sky high which would inflate our import bill,” energy expert Moosa Khan Durrani said.

He said the Arabian Sea and the Strait of Hormuz was the only route for energy supplies for Pakistan and in case of an armed conflict, Pakistan’s energy supplies could also be affected. “The conflict could have very dire consequences. It even runs risk of choking oil supplies,” he added.

Apart from energy supplies, Pakistan’s other trade to the Gulf countries also passes through this strategic lane which could turn into a battlefield between Iran and the United States. Though Iran had threatened to close Strait of Hurmuz and there have been sporadic attacks on oil tankers by Iran there in recent months, Tehran has never tried to choke it altogether, knowing well that the major powers would never let it to do so.

Shahid Hasan Siddiqui, a senior economist, said Pakistan’s economy was still in a vulnerable position and could not afford any external or internal shock. He said extraordinary hike in oil prices could push fiscal deficit to 15 percent of the GDP and also spike inflation which would complicate economic problems for the government and would also increase hardship for the common people.

However, he played down the prospect of any bigger conflict in the region or choking of the Strait of Hormuz. “It can’t be closed more than a couple of days. America would not allow this,” he said.

“In case of Pakistan, remittances would keep coming from the Gulf countries but there investment from this region to Pakistan could be a bit affected but overall it seems situation would not aggravate.”

Moreover, international oil market observers say the spike in global prices was not as high as feared amidst hopes that the conflict would be contained.

However, if the conflict persisted and widened than the situation might go out of control.

But still it would affect countries like Pakistan more than big powers like the United States which produces enough of its own oil to meet its requirements. Still, the US would not like its energy supplies to be affected through any conflict and that was why it has already stationed its warships and troops in the region and plans to send in more soldiers and equipment to face any eventuality.

At a time when Pakistan’s relations are very tense with India over the situation in Kashmir as well as Modi government’s actions to discriminate against Muslims in India, the situation is very alarming for Pakistan, which lies in the proximity of the highly volatile region.

One hopes that better sense prevails on all sides of the brewing Gulf conflict and the situation is defused as quickly as possible.

The writer is a senior journalist based in Islamabad



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A slap in the face

We all know that tax evasion is an offence punishable under the law and subject to payment of huge default surcharge and penalty including imprisonment where the offenders fail to discharge their assessed tax liabilities. We also know that there are people who become tax delinquents by mistake and would like to become honest taxpayers but are deterred by the huge tax cost as well as embarrassment.

People tend to evade and avoid tax and instead prefer to engage in undocumented transactions including cash dealings to prevent being visible to tax collectors and escape their detection when selected for audit. The level of tax evasion is very high in countries where tax rates are unreasonably high, where there are corrupt practices, and where the tax collected is not fully used for the benefit of the general public.

Peeking into the history of tax rates in Pakistan, we have seen the corporate tax rate of 66 percent for banking companies, 44 percent for public companies, and 55 percent for other companies; whereas non-corporate sectors have been taxed at varying rates from 0 percent to 35 percent. These rates gradually reduced to 30 percent for all taxable persons over a period of 72 years, but the government continues to introduce new concepts of taxes in the form of minimum tax, final tax, alternative corporate tax, surcharge or super tax, or enhance the tax rates on dividend and interest income. We do not need an expert to tell us that taxation at 0 percent of income of a person will not generate any tax revenue for the government. Similarly, no expert opinion is needed to tell us that taxation at 100 percent of income of a person will also not generate any tax revenue, as people would certainly not earn any income if all of that were to be taken by the State. Therefore, the rate of tax has to be reasonable giving due consideration to the income from all the sources available to the government, and, to meet the additional needs of the government for economic development, creating more opportunities for new businesses and employment.

Pakistan followed a policy of very aggressive rate of taxation in the past, both for corporate and non-corporate entities, which not only paved the way for tax evasion and avoidance, but it also slowed down the participation of private sector in the economic development of the country. Having failed to win the trust of the taxpayers and collect the right amount of tax from them, the government resorted to massive indirect taxation in the form of heavy excise duty and sales tax, thereby passing on the burden of taxes indirectly to the entire nation. These unreasonable methods employed by the government led to the promotion of informal economy and corrupt practices, which have sadly become the norm in Pakistan.

These are the situations that compel the governments to introduce tax amnesty schemes. The considerations are mainly financial, political, and technical:

• Financial - to collect immediate additional tax revenue to get out of fiscal stress as well as stress after deep institutional changes.

• Political - to provide an opportunity to the people engaged in tax evasion and corrupt practices to whiten their ill-gotten wealth and become honest taxpayers.

• Technical - to make institutional changes for the improvement of tax to GDP ratio by creating opportunities for transformation of informal economy to formal economy.

Understanding tax amnesty

Tax amnesty is commonly understood as government’s forgiveness of all or part of the tax, default surcharge and penalties due from tax defaulters, cheaters, or evaders provided they pay the tax demanded under the amnesty scheme announced by the government. It generally targets the undocumented sectors that have undeclared wealth and income on payment of an unreasonably low price on the condition that no question shall be asked of the source of income for creation of undeclared wealth and that the income and wealth so declared will be treated as whitened. Amnesty is a form of plea bargaining as it provides immunity to the application of tax law to both non-compliant and partly compliant taxpayers at a given price thereby offering an insurance to those who would avail tax amnesty. It could also be viewed as a trade-off between the opportunity of raising immediate extra revenue on the one hand and providing an incentive for future compliance on the other. Most governments introduce tax amnesty schemes on the assumption of heterogeneity among the taxpayers irrespective of whether the tax evaders are small or big, less visible or more visible.

Objective of tax amnesty

The objective of tax amnesty, no doubt, has always been to raise hundreds of billion rupees of taxes which revenue authorities would otherwise have found difficult or impossible to collect. A well-publicised amnesty coupled with stricter enforcement, institutional changes, and rationalisation of tax rates is expected to increase the level of future compliance with the tax laws.

Corrupt tax practices

Fraudulent tax practices have been rampant in Pakistan involving both the taxpayers and tax collectors with and without collusion. The connivance of the delinquent taxpayers and the tax collectors has been deep rooted in the country. To be honest, no serious attention has been given to curb tax evasion and false declarations by non-compliant as well as compliant taxpayers. Even no attention has been given to prevent the loss of tax revenue resulting from the collusion between taxpayers and tax collectors. Instead of introducing tax reforms and building trust between the taxpayers and tax collectors, every successive government, whether military or civilian, introduced tax amnesties for raising one-time revenue to meet the budgetary targets. Whilst complete data of the outcome of the tax amnesties is not officially published by the tax authorities, none of the amnesty schemes achieved the desired objectives. Even after 72 years of independence, Pakistan is still struggling to raise the right amount of tax or achieve a reasonable tax to GDP ratio, which, in a country like Pakistan, should not be less than 15 percent of the GDP.

Tax amnesties in Pakistan

The first tax amnesty scheme in Pakistan was launched by the military government of Ayub Khan in 1958, and the most recent was introduced by the civilian coalition government of Imran Khan in 2019. In between, more than seven tax amnesties were introduced by almost all the governments, but, barring tax amnesty scheme of the year 2000 and 2018 introduced by the military government of Pervez Musharraf and civilian government of Nawaz Sharif (PML-N) respectively, which were presumed to be a great success in comparison with others, none of the tax amnesty schemes achieved the desired results. Unfortunately, these amnesties did not bring any significant change in the tax compliance culture. As per World Bank’s report published in 2015, in terms of tax compliance status, Pakistan is ranked at 172 out of 186 countries. A table of outcome of the past tax amnesties in Pakistan is given below:

You will note that the tax amnesties in the past did not produce encouraging results. They also did not result in any significant improvement in the tax compliance culture. Accordingly, it is clear that the disease of tax evasion and level of informal economy remained a challenge for all governments. An analysis of the failures suggests the following:

a) There has been no political will of the government to ameliorate the situation, as every successive government engaged in corrupt practices, and the schemes it introduced were essentially meant to gain political advantages.

b) The focus of the governments has always been to introduce tax reforms without curing the disease of corrupt practices of the tax collectors.

c) Instead of cementing the holes in the tax laws or strengthening the tax laws, the governments opted for legislations to create loopholes to promote tax avoidance and tax evasion and prevent probe into such corrupt practices. One example is the introduction of section 111 in the Income Tax Ordinance, 2001 to grant immunity from probe into remittances from abroad.

d) The state of Pakistan remained in the control of landlords, industrialists, and military, who have legislated only to enjoy tax exemptions for themselves. Examples: Total exemption from tax on the income from agriculture, and specific tax exemptions to the military, judges, and bureaucrats.

e) Lack of institutional reforms including reduction in tax rates and other taxes to win the trust of taxpayers in the taxation system and tax administration.

Virtues of tax amnesties

To judge the virtues of an amnesty, policymakers will have to weigh the revenues raised against its other consequences, both negative and positive, which may be substantive. For example, some elements of a tax amnesty will support and other elements will undermine the legitimacy of the tax system and the revenues that it collects. Considering the prominence of taxes in the transactions of the public with the government, a tax amnesty may also affect the perceived overall legitimacy of the government. Before introducing any tax amnesty, it is necessary to decide whether it is to be coupled with institutional reforms to bridge the trust gap between the tax administration and taxpayers, and strict enforcement program or status quo or stepped up enforcement program, for amnesty alone may provide increased collection of tax revenue, but it may remain temporary.

Reasons for failure

An analysis of the reasons for failure, or less positive impact, of tax amnesties suggests the following:

• There has been a huge trust gap between the delinquent taxpayers and tax collectors

• Corrupt practices are rampant in the tax collection machinery and it is less costly to stay out of the tax net

• Each successive government tends to introduce tax amnesty as a tool to boost the tax collection for meeting temporary tax targets and the people believe that there will be future amnesties

• lack of knowledge and capacity of tax collectors to combat tax evasion, under-declaration or false declaration of taxable income, and

• Long drawn appeal options available to taxpayers where tax assessed could be appealed and its judgment is either delayed or compromised.

Risks associated with tax amnesties

• It annoys the compliant taxpayers

• It is unfair to those who pay their taxes honestly and on time

• It may weaken the incentive for tax compliance, especially if people expect that amnesties may be coming again in the future

• It may cause a fall in revenue, thereby reducing the efficiency of the tax system

• It may increase cheating, which is detrimental to the efficacy of the tax system

• It may reduce the equity of the tax system if we let the dishonest people off the hook

• It undermines the strength of the social sanction against the amnestied behaviour reducing the guilt felt by delinquents when they misbehave

• It may make cheating seem less significant, reducing the guilt felt by those who consider widening their deductions of admissible expenditures or under reporting their taxable income.

Benefits of tax amnesties

• The taxpayers who evade or under-declare unintentionally or inadvertently feel guilt or psychological loss for evading or making wrong declaration, may take it as an opportunity for reprieve to rectify their tax status and use it as a remedy for the psychological costs associated with non-compliance.

• It reduces the guilt of tax evaders by making payment of tax arrears.

• It allows collection of unpaid past tax, which was otherwise not collectible.

• It encourages renewed compliances.

• It makes the society better equipped to control the future.

• It allows the society to forgive violators who are unlikely to become repeat offenders.

• It helps in reducing or eliminating burdens from a social split or from individual guilt.

• It permits the society to declare that it made a mistake and now wants to rectify it.

• It can make the transition to a new enforcement regime seem fairer.

Conclusion

High tax rates coupled with corrupt practices and the trust gap between the tax administration and taxpayers encourages the taxpayers to stay away from the tax net and opt for informal economy. Limited attention affects our ability to make good choices, but governments can improve decision-making by taking the following steps:

• Reform the tax administration by inducting tax professionals of integrity.

• Set up highly independent office of tax ombudsman with powers to examine cases of corrupt practices and take punitive actions against the tax collectors.

• Eliminate red tape by introducing automation with log maintained and monitored by a strong professional oversight team.

• Introduce rewards and incentives for honest tax compliances by the taxpayers.

• Streamline tax rates for all segments of the society to make them pay taxes voluntarily, honestly and without fear of abuse by the tax collectors, which in turn should broaden the tax base and high tax revenue for the government.

• Stop giving tax amnesties because nobody takes it seriously, as it is introduced from the point of weakness and at the cost of annoying and slapping the compliant taxpayers.

Year Government Tax Collection People opted Value of Assets

Year Government Tax Collection People opted Value of Assets

(PKR’000) (No.) declared (PKR’000)

1958 Ayub Khan - (Military) 1,120,000 71,289 *

1969 Yahya Khan - (Military) * 19,600 920,000

1976 Z. A. Bhutto - (Civilian) * * 270,000

1997 Nawaz Sharif- (Civilian) 142,000 * *

2000 Musharraf - (Military) 10,000,000 79,200 180,000,000

2001 Musharraf - (Military) 2,500,000 * *

2016 Nawaz Sharif- (Civilian) 850,000 10,000 *

2018 Nawaz Sharif- (Civilian) 125,000,000 84,000 2,500,000,000

2019 Imran Khan- (Civilian) 70,000,000 100,000 3,000,000,000

*Figures not available

Note: Since FBR did not publish the information of amnesty results, the information tabulated above is taken from various news reports and published data available in the social media. Accordingly, some of the information presented above may not be accurate.

The writer is a chartered accountant



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Sunday, December 29, 2019

A multi-dimensional challenge

FAMILY PLANNING

According to a projection of the United Nations, the population of Pakistan could reach to an uncontrollable 403 million by 2050. It is unimaginable to think how the government would be able to provide employment, water, public transport and food to so many people in the country, when the provision of these basic necessities is a challenge even today with a population of 207 million.

In the 2017 census, the population of the country, which had been projected to be 198 million, turned out to be 207 million. Concerned by such a high growth rate in the population, the then chief justice of Pakistan, Saqib Nisar, took a suo moto notice of it as a human rights case. He formed a committee with representatives from the federal government and civil society and directed it to give recommendations on the issue.

Dr Ali Mir, of the Population Council, a non-government organisation that carries out technical research for government agencies regarding population, states that after those recommendations, were drafted by the committee, the Council of Common Interests (CCI) approved them in January 2019.

One of the recommendations was to constitute separate federal and provincial task forces to monitor the population growth and take critical decisions to reduce it by lowering the fertility rate and increasing the contraceptive prevalence rate (CPR), which is a measure of the use of contraceptives.

The national task force is supposed to be chaired by the prime minister and comprise the chief ministers of all the provinces, provincial ministers of population, health, education, finance and planning, and representatives of civil society. The provincial task forces are to be chaired by the respective chief ministers and include their cabinet members.

Demographer, and senior associate and country director of the Population Council Zeba Sathar, who is also a member of the committee formed by the Supreme Court, stresses the need for building a new national narrative to bring a balance in the population growth. Rather than controlling the population, she says the state needs to manage it. Due to high unwanted pregnancies and number of children, the public, she believes, is ready to get engaged with the state in its efforts to manage the population.

The committee had come up with a total of four recommendations. One of them was the Family Planning and Reproductive Health (FP&RH) Rights Bill which was supposed to ensure mandatory FP&RH services at all the general health care facilities in the public and private sector. It was recommended that the National and provincial assemblies approve the bill by March 31, 2019 but it is yet to be passed by the assemblies, except that of Sindh.

Likewise, the Early Child Marriage Restraint Act has also only been passed by the Sindh Assembly, whereas, it was supposed to be passed by all the assemblies by March 31, this year.

The third legal recommendation was about the pre-marital counselling on family planning, for which some work has been carried out by the provinces. The committee recommended that such counselling be made mandatory for the Nikah (marriage) registration.

She also shares the idea of a post-marital counselling. “It can be done immediately after the marriage,” she says and adds that it will have to be across the board for everyone.

In its fourth legal recommendation, the committee called for declaring the right to promotive and primary health care for mother and child a fundamental right by including it in the constitution.

Regarding the religious sensibilities involved in the matter, Dr Sathar believes there’s already a consensus of religious scholars being built over the need of managing the population. She also particularly praises Sindh for taking the legal framework regarding the population issue very seriously.

The federal government, according to one of the recommendations, should also release every year a non-lapsable amount of Rs10 billion under the Pakistan Population Fund to the provinces in order to help them control the population growth.

The real situation

For a family of six members, which includes four children and two adults, having a monthly income of Rs25,000 is below the poverty line in Pakistan. According to this criterion, 76 million people are living below the poverty line in Pakistan as per the last census. This situation is further compounded by the fact that these low income group families reproduce even more and thus the ranks of the most marginalised continues to increase.

Currently, Pakistan has the highest population growth in the region, about 2.4 per cent. When Bangladesh was East Pakistan, its population growth rate was higher than that of West Pakistan. Today, it manages to maintain its population growth at a rate of 1.6 per cent.

India, being the second largest populated country of the world after China, has its population growth projected at 1.8 per cent. According to the World Bank, China’s growth rate was 0.7 per cent in 2017. The population growth rate in Iran is 1.1 percent.

In a country like Bangladesh, where successive governments were able to control population growth, they are now able to provide better education and health facilities, and economic opportunities to the population.

Mass migration

The director of the University of Karachi’s (KU) Applied Economic Research Centre, Dr Samina Khalil, points out that high unemployment, leads to migration of population from rural areas towards urban centres.

The population growth rate in the urban areas of Pakistan is 2.7 per cent, whereas it is 2.4 per cent in the rural areas. On the national scale, the average population growth rate has declined in Pakistan from 2.6 per cent in 1998 to 2.4 per cent in 2017; however, it is still very high.

The capital territory of Islamabad has registered the highest population growth rate of 4.91 per cent. Punjab and Sindh have, however, seen a decline in their population growth rates, which have been recorded at 2.13 per cent and 2.47 per cent, respectively.

Meanwhile, Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa (KP) and Balochistan have also witnessed an increase in their population growth. Currently, the population growth rate of KP is 2.9 per cent and that of Balochistan stands at 3.37 per cent.

Immediate steps are needed to control the population growth. The state has to indeed play its role, but parents are also a key stakeholder, alongside the state, and they need to understand the seriousness of the issue.

State’s role in population control

The state is not only responsible for the provision of health facilities, education, economic opportunities and infrastructure to the people, but in the context of the population growth, it is also supposed to develop such policies which would create a balance in the population growth.

A professor at the Karachi University’s department of sociology, Dr Nabeel Zuberi, who has specialised in human behavior, also underscores the need for carrying out research on the population living below the poverty line to determine factors which make them reproduce more. “The population living under the poverty line cannot be educated by force but with incentives,” he says and shares that there are fears and shame attached with ensuring a gap between births among the poor communities in Pakistan.

He recalls that in 1955, Pakistan was the first country in the Islamic world which started a population welfare programme, but today it had quite unsatisfactory indicators regarding the people’s welfare. Citing the example of Iran, which is a religious country, he says that their CPR is 78 per cent. In Pakistan, this ratio is around only 30 per cent.

Biostatistician Zahid Mehmood also praises Iran’s model and explains how they have made it compulsory to have segregated seminars for male and female students of universities on family planning. They have also opened small institutions across the country to educate the adults about family life and planning and it is now mandatory for Iranians to obtain a certificate from those institutions before solemnising marriage. The CCI’s approved recommendations also tasked the provincial and federal governments to include life skills based education and population studies in secondary and higher secondary schools.

Renowned economist Dr Kaiser Bengali is of the opinion that the government also needs to bring all religious leaders on board. He proposes holding an Islamic conference on family planning after inviting religious leaders from all Muslim countries. If these religious leaders share their countries’ strategies to control population growth, it will result in a breakthrough, he remarks.

Pending bills in Punjab, KP, and Balochistan

Family Planning and Reproductive Health (FP&RH) Rights Bill

Early Child Marriage Restraint Act

Bills were to be passed by March 31, 2019

Regional Population Growth Rate

• 76 million people live below poverty line in Pakistan as per last census

• Pakistan’s population can reach an uncontrollable 403 million by 2050

• Average growth rate declined from 2.6 per cent in 1998 to 2.4 per cent in 2017

• Urban population growth rate is 2.7 percent, whereas rural rate is 2.4 percent

• In 1955, Pakistan was first in the Islamic world to start a population welfare programme

Role of parents in poplation control

As for the second stakeholder, parents, Dr Zuberi recalls the United Nations’ International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD) in Cairo in 1994, in which gender roles were defined. “In our country, women are only considered as child-producing machines,” he says and suggests that if the gender perceptions are addressed properly from the birth, there can be greater balance in societies due to less mismatch between scarce resources and ever growing consumers.

Good and responsible parenting, according to Dr Zuberi, is in itself a science. “It is easy to become parents biologically, but there is social, political, religious and psychological parenting which we aren’t aware of.”

The writer is a staff member



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International Conference on Population and Development

Federal minister for Health Dr Zafar Mirza spoke at length on Pakistan’s commitment to manage its population growth at the International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD) 25 in Nairobi on November 13, 2019 arranged by the United Nations Fund for Population Activity (UNFPA).

He said, “…. in Pakistan we have made significant progress on many accounts in last 25 years. I would like to share following two statistics: Between 1990 and 2018 antenatal care has increased from 14 per cent to 51 per cent. Skilled birth attendance increased from 17 per cent to 69 per cent in the same period.

• “More important for us, however, is to say that we are unsatisfied with the progress we have made and we acknowledge the need for an accelerated action on many accounts for our children, girls, women, boys, men and our transgender fellow citizens.

• There is a political change in Pakistan, with the leadership of Prime Minister Imran Khan who strongly and deeply believes in human dignity and development. He deeply empathise with vulnerable sections of society and is leading an unprecedented national effort to address the problems of disadvantaged in the society. Even in the time of economic difficulty our government has prioritised these issues and we have initiated mega multi-billion PKR project financed mainly through domestic resources.

• The kamyab jawan (successful youth) program for youth empowerment through economic support and women empowerment.

• The Ehsaas program which means empathy, a comprehensive poverty alleviation and social protection. Along with Benazir Income Support Program make up a largest safety net programs which are providing unconditional cash transfer to the income poor.

• We have also initiated social insurance for the poor families and until now around five million families have been provided coverage...

• Issues related with population planning and welfare are now at the heart of our public policies. Our five-year development plan is firmly underpinned by 2030 agenda for sustainable development…

• Our government has embarked upon an agenda of fundamental change especially to address the needs of women, children and youth.

• We have now developed a National Action Plan on population and we have established Federal Task Force on Population which is chaired by the prime minister, all chief ministers and relevant federal ministers. Same high level task forces have been established in provinces.”

We have set time bound targets and we are committed to achieving them. We know that it is critical to meaningfully advance towards achieving access to sexual and reproductive health as an integral part of UHC.

—Dr Zafar Iqbal, Special Adviser to Prime Minister on Health



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Turnaround in 2020

After a decade of stagnant exports, 2020 will be the year where we see a revival of the export industry. Since coming into government in August 2018, our top priority has been to make local exports more competitive in the international markets and boost foreign currency income. Towards this goal, the government has realigned the exchange rate to remove the anti-export bias and provided subsidy to the industry to make it more competitive in the international markets.

This includes subsidy on gas and power. Similarly, the export industry has been provided subsidy on bank credit. On top of subsidies, the government is also working on enhancing market access for exports. The recently signed FTA II with China gives additional duty-free access for local exporters. These measures will help break the $26 billion barrier for exports in 2020. This will be a new record for Pakistan and will provide significant boost to the growth momentum for the economy.

Exports of services are another area of focus for the government and boost in tourism, including opening of the Kartarpur corridor is expected to boost foreign income receipts.

Fiscal year 2019/20 saw record high remittances as a result of greater confidence of the overseas Pakistanis and incentives to banks to bring flows through banking channels. This was the first time that remittances crossed the $20 billion barrier. We are targeting remittances to continue to accelerate in 2020.

In the year 2020, we will see the return of foreign investment in Pakistan. After four years for net outflows, foreign portfolio investments into the local debt and equity markets have picked up sharply. This is positive for the capital markets and will support higher FDI inflows in 2020.

CPEC phase II will give additional stimulus

In 2020 the benefits of CPEC will start to trickle into the productive sectors of the economy including industry and agriculture. The first phase of CPEC (early harvest projects) addressed key infrastructure gaps in the economy with focus on energy and transport bottlenecks.

The big projects under CPEC targeted to be completed in 2020 include the trade and transport connectivity projects of KKH Phase-II Havelian-Thakot (118km) road and the Sukkur-Multan (392km) highway. These projects will significantly reduce the transit time and encourage greater trade of goods and services. Whereas Rs40 billion in Chinese grants is being invested in Gwadar for upgrading the airport and roads infrastructure.

The big project targeted to be launched in 2020 is the up gradation of the Railways Main Line (ML-1), a $9 billion project which will significantly enhance the railway infrastructure for trade in goods and services.

Phase II of CPEC will build on the success of the early harvest projects and in 2020 resources will be focused towards generating greater economic activity and job creation.

CPEC Phase II focuses on industrialisation, socioeconomic development, agriculture modernisation, and tourism promotion. Central to Phase II is the development of three special SEZs on a priority basis namely Rashakai (Nowshera), Allama Iqbal (Faisalabad) and Dhabeji (Thatta).

The SEZs will help to attract large FDI into Pakistan and help to reverse the tide of de-industrialisation over the last 10 years. The government has announced incentives including tax holidays to attract business to make investments in Pakistan through joint ventures with local industry.

Growth recovery and job creation

Greater investor confidence and pick up in exports and remittances will support recovery in growth in 2020. Macroeconomic stability has been achieved with the CAD and fiscal deficits both showing significant improvements. These improvements have led to Moody's international rating agency upgrading Pakistan's outlook to ‘positive’.

Growth recovery and job creation will be supported by higher government PSDP spending in 2020. Key investments in CPEC related projects including SEZs and infrastructure are being fast tracked.

PSDP spending is now focused towards key investments to bridge gaps in public infrastructure with a focus on new water storage facilities including three major dams, transport connectivity (roads, railways and mass transit) and up gradation of the weak power transmission and distribution infrastructure, a major contributor towards high costs and losses in the power sector.

On top of the budgeted PSDP spending, the government has finalised strategy to attract higher private sector investments into infrastructure projects through Public Private Partnerships (PPP). This will provide an additional stimulus for economic growth and create job opportunities for the youth.

Revival of the agriculture sector is a key priority for the PTI government. Growth in major crops over the last five years has been negative 0.2 percent, reflecting low investment and productivity.

In 2020, the National Agriculture Emergency Programme will support Rs287 billion in new investments in the agriculture sector through 13 targeted projects aimed at enhancing productivity, oil seed development, water conservation and fish farming. These investments will support higher growth in 2020.

Government has also provided incentives to banks to increase credit availability to farmers, and as a result during first months of FY20 agriculture credit off-take has increased 24 percent year-on-year.

Growth in 2020 will also be supported by a pickup in construction sector. The government has approved incentives for low-cost housing sector, which include subsidy on down payment by beneficiaries of affordable housing. On top of this, tax credits will be given to developers of low-cost housing schemes.

The Rs100 billion PM Kamyab Jawan program has been launched to create new job opportunities for the youth.

The Youth Entrepreneurship Scheme (YES) aims to provide interest free and concessional loans to young entrepreneurs to scale up business and create new employment opportunities. The Start Up Pakistan initiative aims to provide entrepreneurship training to over one million youth and launch 10,000 start-ups. These initiatives under the PM Kamyab Jawan program will provide significant opportunities for job creation in 2020.

Inflation has peaked and will decline in 2020

Inflation is the biggest challenge facing the economy in 2019. CPI inflation accelerated to 10.8 percent during July-November FY20 compared to 6.1 percent in the same period last year. Rise in inflation is a direct consequence of the economic challenges inherited by the PTI government. This includes large twin deficits and record high circular debt.

When PTI government took office, current account deficit had hit record levels of $20 billion, with dwindling foreign exchange reserves and large external debt payments looming ahead. To avoid a default on debt obligations the government had no option but to realign the exchange rate. Between August 2018 to December 2019, the currency devalued by 25 percent (from 124 to 154). This has been a major contributor to rising inflation.

Similarly, the government inherited a power sector on the verge of a default. The power sector circular debt had ballooned to Rs1.2 trillion, whereas the circular debt in the gas companies had reached Rs160 billion by June 2018. This forced the government to adjust tariffs towards greater cost recovery, further adding to inflationary pressures.

Through significant reduction in the twin deficits, we are targeting to reduce inflation in 2020. Greater stability in the exchange rate, zero borrowing from SBP and tighter monetary policy are all measures geared towards bringing down the burden of inflation. On top of these policy measures the government has also increased subsidies to shield consumers from rising power and gas costs. Similarly, government has allocated higher subsidies at utility stores and ‘roti tandoors’ for citizens.

Moving towards a welfare state

PTI government strongly believes in making Pakistan a welfare state and in the FY20 Budget the government substantially increased pro-poor spending under the Prime Ministers Ehsas program. Budget allocation for the PM Ehsas program has increased significantly to Rs190 billion in FY20. This includes unconditional cash transfer program (BISP) of Rs5,500 per quarter to 5.1 million beneficiaries. Under the Waseela-e-Taleem program, 3.2 million children in 50 districts are receiving conditional cash transfer of Rs1,000/quarter to reduce drop-out ratio. PM has recently launched 200,000 Ehsaas undergraduate scholarships program for the unprivileged children.

Similarly, government has made a record allocation of Rs152 billion for merged districts of FATA for 10 million of the most marginalised and vulnerable households. While health coverage under the Sehat Sahulat Program worth Rs720,000 per year per family has been extended to 42 districts impacting 3.2 million households.

More budgetary resources have also been allocated to shield the most vulnerable households from rising cost of living. Higher subsidies on power and gas are provided to the poorest households.

In 2020 the government will significantly scale up the PM Ehsas program and allocate a higher share of budgetary resources towards the poorest and most marginalised households across Pakistan. This will be a step towards realisation of our dream to make Pakistan a welfare state.

The writer is the Minister of Planning, Development and Special Initiatives

$26 billion barrier to be breached for exports in 2020

Rs40 billion in Chinese grants being invested in Gwadar to upgrade airport and infrastructure

$9 billion Railways Main Line (ML-1) project to improve trade in goods and services

Rs287 billion to support National Agriculture Emergency Programme in 2020

Rs100 billion under PM Kamyab Jawan program to create job opportunities for youth

Rs190 billion in FY20 under Prime Ministers Ehsas program

Rs5,500/quarter to 5.1 million beneficiaries under Benazir Income Support Program

Rs1,000/quarter to 3.2 million children under the Waseela-e-Taleem program

200,000 Ehsaas undergraduate scholarships program launched for unprivileged children

Rs152 billion allocated for 10 million vulnerable households in merged districts of FATA

Rs720,000 per year per family to cover 3.2 million households under the Sehat Sahulat Program

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